Welcome to the fringe

Feel free to peruse my musings and commentary, and feel free to leave a comment if you like, dislike, or are just amused by something.
I try to cover a little bit of everything, but right now Politics holds my fancy.. Especially since the Rockies are playing so lousy at the moment.

The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this author does not endorse.
But it is the price we pay for the possibility of making a little coin now and again. (like that has been happening).

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Let's talk FL and MI come the 31st

The DNC rules committee will meet on the 31st to figure out what the heck to do with the Michigan and Florida delegation seating.

While we wait.. let's look at this from the two candidate's perspective.

Obama: There is absolutely no reason for him to want to compromise to get either delegation seated. There is no advantage in it for him in terms of the nomination. If the roles were reversed, and Clinton was ahead, and Obama had won MI and FL, does anyone think for a moment that she would be howling at the moon to count those votes and get the delegates seated, if they in anyway had a possibility of providing Obama with a reason to take it to the convention? I think not.

Clinton: Getting MI and FL seates as voted (with Obama off the MI ballot, and no campaigning in FL), is the only sliver of hope left for Clinton to even get close enough (getting both seated still won't let her overtake Obama), to make the "popular vote" argument to the super delegates. But if she can get them seated relatively close to how the original voting allocated, it opens the door for her slightly to take this thing to the convention for a floor fight which is something the DNC definately doesn't want to see happen. It would practically cripple the Democrats afterwards. If Obama was behind and had won MI and FL, I'm sure we would be seeing the very same arguments from him to get them seated, and Clinton would be fighting tooth and nail to scale back their impact.

So basically what we have here, is the person in front, having no logical reason to compromise, will probably have to. The person behind, absolutely needing them seated in their entirety, probably not willing to compromise, but will probably have to.

In the end we will probably see the GOP theory at work, seating half of them or some such percentage. Clinton will draw a little closer, but not close enough to catch up in the delegates count, the super delegates will weigh in after June 3rd at about a 50 50 split, and Obama still ends up the nominee, but Clinton will have fought the great fight, and be positioned to go at it again in 4 years should Obama not win in November.

The results of the 31st meeting should at least provide some additonal entertainment Because the Obama supporters won't like the outcome, and the Clinton supporters won't like the outcome, and we will be able to see both sides ridicule and spit at each other from afar until the convention in August

No comments: