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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Obama fighting two front battle against Clintons

Over the last couple of Democratic primary events, the NH primary and the Nevada caucus, it has become increasingly apparent that former president Bill Clinton is taking a far more direct role in the campaign of his wife Hillary against Barack Obama. Frequently, Hillary plays the "nice" (do we remember the near to tears in NH) part of campaign duo, while Bill plays the "nasty" (Obama's campaign of hope is a "fairy tale") campaign member. Obviously Bill's intention from June not to do significant campaigning for Hillary (Washingtonpost.com interview), where he said "I don't expect to do a lot of this this year and I don't think it's helpful. I want people to get to know Hillary.", has been abandoned for a much more aggressive role.

I can not recall any previous election where a Former President exercised so much influence in a party's nomination race. But then there has never been a Former President who was the husband of a running candidate. The question for Obama is this: Does he have to take on in public debate not only Hillary, but a former president to defeat her for the Democratic nomination? The answer at this point appears to be an unequivocal YES.

The thing that concerns me is that the Democrats seem to be buying the Hillary (you like me you really really like me) shtick while viewing Bill's negative assaults and tantrums in support of his wife (NY Times Article) as just Bill being Bill. When in fact they are obviously a concerted effort that is part and parcel to the entire Hillary Clinton campaign plan.

Previous Former Presidents have for the most part stayed out of the party process to determine a nominee, and saving their campaign capital for the general election in support of their parties chosen candidate. This time, Bill appears to be the house "junk yard dog" set loose at every opportunity to attack any of the other Democrat candidates when ever they appear to be threatening Hillary's position as Democratic standard bearer.

While I doubt there will be any reigning in of Bill during the remainder of the campaign (after all he loves the limelight so), one has to wonder if Obama can overcome such an obvious double barrelled shotgun campaign.

Should Barack Obama survive and win the Democratic nomination in Denver, he will have overcome a campaign handicap that no Democrat or Republican has ever had to face before in winning their party's nomination. Not only will he have beaten a politically shrewed and experienced campaigner in Hillary Clinton, but also have beaten a heavily active former President who still carries significant control over the Democrat party machine, in the same campaign.

If Obama wins the nomination, the Republicans will be hard pressed to test his campaigning metal any more than it will be tested during the race for the nomination.

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