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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Another primary, another dash of GOP confusion

The South Carolina primary solved nothing as far as the GOP race is concerned except for the "Custer's last stand" expected demise of Fred Thompson's "last stand" in South Carolina. McCain took the primary with 33% of the vote, Huckabee was second with 30%, Thompson a distant third with 16%, and Romney who pretty much gave up on SC fourth with 15%. Fred Thompson had stated all along that his strategy was to bypass the earlier caucuses and primaries and focus on winning SC. Obviously a bad tactic after last nights results. Not only did he not come close to winning, but during the campaign he has failed miserably at defining what his campaign stands for. By not participating in the earlier GOP primary events, he has not honed his message (what ever that may be) with the electorate to the extent McCain, Huckabee, and Romney have.

By fairly well conceding SC to McCain and Huckabee, Romney looks to take his high spending campaign to Florida. By doing so, he has left the door open even wider for McCain and Huckabee in my opinion.

As I look to Florida, I expect the same results for Giuliani as Thompson had in SC. Too late to the game, and an undefined message that separates him from the top three. About the only thing to come out of Florida is a more compressed trio of candidates with no clear leader going into Super Tuesday on February 5th.

While the GOP hopes that Super Tuesday will provide them with a clear leader, I am far from convinced. The likely hood of the GOP going to their convention without a clear cut nominee looks to provide immense entertainment to the political junkies like me, but do little to shore up the lagging Republican enthusiasm for the race so far.

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