McCain wins FLA, Clinton sort of wins

Last night we had the Florida Democratic and Republican primaries, one actually meant something while the other was essentially a beauty contest. In the high stakes “winner take all” Florida GOP primary, John McCain beat Mitt Romney 36% to 31%, with Rudy Giuliani showing a disappointing 15%, and Huckabee 14%. In the Florida Democratic beauty contest Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama 50% to 33%, with John Edwards coming in again a dismal third with 14%, garnering absolutely nobody any delegates whatsoever.

On the Republican side of the fence the poor showings by Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee essentially removes them from Republican nominee contention. Ron Paul after receiving a meager 3% of the votes in Florida is continuing a trend of looking like he has nothing better to do for the summer. Rudy Giuliani staked his entire campaign on winning Florida and his third place finish will most likely cause him to abandon his race for the nomination. Should that happen, I would fully expect that Giuliani will throw his endorsement to John McCain, causing significant pressure from the Romney side to convince Mike Huckabee to also dropped out, allowing Romney to garner more of the far right evangelical Christian vote which has eluded John McCain to a large degree. While John McCain may have the lead going into Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney still has considerable funds available to him to continue the fight. The problem for Mitt Romney is that the majority of the republican primaries and caucuses on February 5 are "winner take all" propositions with John McCain leading in the polls for the majority of them. If Rudy Giuliani throws his support to McCain and Huckabee continues his run all the way to the convention it would be highly probable that John McCain could have the nomination wrapped up if not on Super Tuesday shortly thereafter.

On the Democratic side of the fence, the win in Florida provides Hillary Clinton with a little good news in a week full of bad news. The punishment of the Florida democrats by the DNC for moving their primaries prior to February 5, and disallowing delegate representation, essentially gives Hillary Clinton a win in a beauty contest that was uncontested, and void of serious campaign organization. Additionally, approximately 400,000 votes had been received prior to Barack Obama’s win in South Carolina, and the subsequent endorsements by Ted, Caroline, and Patrick Kennedy. Again John Edwards came in a disappointing third with only 14% of the vote, and I would fully expect the Obama organization and its new support from Ted Kennedy and some Democratic Party leadership to begin to pressure Edwards to remove himself from the race in the belief that the anti-Hillary white democratic vote would then go to Obama. Even if Edwards stays in the race all the way to the convention in Denver, there is every expectation, and a strong possibility, that it will have to be a brokered convention with no clear nominee with sufficient delegates to win on the first ballot. With all of the Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday being proportional allocations, rather than winner take all, it is quite conceivable that should Hillary Clinton win the primaries in the majority of the states where she currently has a lead in the polls, she would not be able to acquire sufficient delegates prior to the convention to ensure a first vote nomination. I fully expect the pressure on Edwards to remove himself from the race to increase dramatically in the next few days and during the weekend leading up to the primaries on February 5th.

Interesting dynamics to keep in mind as we ramp up to Super Tuesday, is the expected endorsement of McCain by Giuliani, the increasing pressure on Mike Huckabee and John Edwards to drop out, and the decision by the two front runners of each party to mellow their personal attacking rhetoric at the debates on Wednesday and Thursday. I expect that the Democratic debate will be much more gentle and cordial than the last debate prior to South Carolina. I also expect the rancor of the last few days in the Republican campaign to decrease significantly as Mitt Romney and John McCain essentially square off against each other.

One trend that has remained consistent throughout this primary season has been the energizing of the Democratic Party, and the substantial increases in voter turnout compared to that of the Republicans. Even in a primary where the delegates did not count, the total number of Democratic votes was exceptionally large. This is a trend that started with Iowa and has continued through out the string of primaries, and is probably likely to continue throughout the rest of the primary season. Unless the Republicans can come to a decision on nominee quickly and start to develop a serious enthusiasm for a defined Republican ticket, the hopes for a Republican White House win in 2008 look exceedingly slim, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.

Edited 11:54 AM 1/30/08:
As I had expected John Edwards dropped out of the race leaving the Democratic race a two horse race between Clinton and Obama. Where the Edwards supporters will go now, is the subject of much conjecture, but no true knowledge. I suspect we will no know the effect until after Super Tuesday.

Edited 4:42 PM 1/30:
As expected Rudy Giuliani withdrew from the Republican Presidential race firmly endorsing John McCain for the position.