2 Down and the GOP had a debate

Two down and the race narrows:
As expected John Edwards has withdrawn from the presidential race, without throwing an endorsement to either of the remaining candidates. Also, as expected, Rudy Giuliani withdrew from the presidential race, throwing a hearty endorsement to his friend John McCain. A lot of the buzz has been on the Democratic side simply because Edwards did not endorse either Clinton or Obama. The talking heads are all a twitter trying to pronounce where his delegates will go, and who his supporters will vote for in the big Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. Personally, I don't think, unless Edwards actually comes out and endorses either Clinton or Obama, that we will have a clue where his supporters will vote until the exit polls on the 5th are analyzed.

The GOP Debate:
The remaining four Republican candidates settled down in the Conservative holy shrine of the "Reagan Library" in California for a little debate. As much as Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul would like to think they are viable candidates for the Republican nomination, it is clearly a race between John McCain and Mitt Romney. And as the two leaders took shot and counter shot at each other over issues of Iraq surge, Immigration, Energy independence and Economy, the heart of the matter was to prove to the Republican faithful who was the more "conservative". Neither McCain, or Romney said anything new from previous debates as far as their positions are concerned, but tried to phrase every answer into the "conservative" speak that will draw the core Republican base to them.

From where I sit, it appears that John McCain is starting to establish momentum since his Florida primary win, that could be the tipping point in his drive for the GOP nomination. Make no mistake it is very much still a close race, with Romney having still very deep pockets while McCain definitely needs strong fund raising.

Next up the Democrats debate tomorrow:
Tomorrow could be a very critical turning point in the Democratic nomination race with only Clinton and Obama being left to debate. A one on one debate between these two could be the deciding factor to propel one on to the nomination. I will definitely be having the pop corn and comfy chair ready to watch this one. :)

McCain wins FLA, Clinton sort of wins

Last night we had the Florida Democratic and Republican primaries, one actually meant something while the other was essentially a beauty contest. In the high stakes “winner take all” Florida GOP primary, John McCain beat Mitt Romney 36% to 31%, with Rudy Giuliani showing a disappointing 15%, and Huckabee 14%. In the Florida Democratic beauty contest Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama 50% to 33%, with John Edwards coming in again a dismal third with 14%, garnering absolutely nobody any delegates whatsoever.

On the Republican side of the fence the poor showings by Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee essentially removes them from Republican nominee contention. Ron Paul after receiving a meager 3% of the votes in Florida is continuing a trend of looking like he has nothing better to do for the summer. Rudy Giuliani staked his entire campaign on winning Florida and his third place finish will most likely cause him to abandon his race for the nomination. Should that happen, I would fully expect that Giuliani will throw his endorsement to John McCain, causing significant pressure from the Romney side to convince Mike Huckabee to also dropped out, allowing Romney to garner more of the far right evangelical Christian vote which has eluded John McCain to a large degree. While John McCain may have the lead going into Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney still has considerable funds available to him to continue the fight. The problem for Mitt Romney is that the majority of the republican primaries and caucuses on February 5 are "winner take all" propositions with John McCain leading in the polls for the majority of them. If Rudy Giuliani throws his support to McCain and Huckabee continues his run all the way to the convention it would be highly probable that John McCain could have the nomination wrapped up if not on Super Tuesday shortly thereafter.

On the Democratic side of the fence, the win in Florida provides Hillary Clinton with a little good news in a week full of bad news. The punishment of the Florida democrats by the DNC for moving their primaries prior to February 5, and disallowing delegate representation, essentially gives Hillary Clinton a win in a beauty contest that was uncontested, and void of serious campaign organization. Additionally, approximately 400,000 votes had been received prior to Barack Obama’s win in South Carolina, and the subsequent endorsements by Ted, Caroline, and Patrick Kennedy. Again John Edwards came in a disappointing third with only 14% of the vote, and I would fully expect the Obama organization and its new support from Ted Kennedy and some Democratic Party leadership to begin to pressure Edwards to remove himself from the race in the belief that the anti-Hillary white democratic vote would then go to Obama. Even if Edwards stays in the race all the way to the convention in Denver, there is every expectation, and a strong possibility, that it will have to be a brokered convention with no clear nominee with sufficient delegates to win on the first ballot. With all of the Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday being proportional allocations, rather than winner take all, it is quite conceivable that should Hillary Clinton win the primaries in the majority of the states where she currently has a lead in the polls, she would not be able to acquire sufficient delegates prior to the convention to ensure a first vote nomination. I fully expect the pressure on Edwards to remove himself from the race to increase dramatically in the next few days and during the weekend leading up to the primaries on February 5th.

Interesting dynamics to keep in mind as we ramp up to Super Tuesday, is the expected endorsement of McCain by Giuliani, the increasing pressure on Mike Huckabee and John Edwards to drop out, and the decision by the two front runners of each party to mellow their personal attacking rhetoric at the debates on Wednesday and Thursday. I expect that the Democratic debate will be much more gentle and cordial than the last debate prior to South Carolina. I also expect the rancor of the last few days in the Republican campaign to decrease significantly as Mitt Romney and John McCain essentially square off against each other.

One trend that has remained consistent throughout this primary season has been the energizing of the Democratic Party, and the substantial increases in voter turnout compared to that of the Republicans. Even in a primary where the delegates did not count, the total number of Democratic votes was exceptionally large. This is a trend that started with Iowa and has continued through out the string of primaries, and is probably likely to continue throughout the rest of the primary season. Unless the Republicans can come to a decision on nominee quickly and start to develop a serious enthusiasm for a defined Republican ticket, the hopes for a Republican White House win in 2008 look exceedingly slim, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.

Edited 11:54 AM 1/30/08:
As I had expected John Edwards dropped out of the race leaving the Democratic race a two horse race between Clinton and Obama. Where the Edwards supporters will go now, is the subject of much conjecture, but no true knowledge. I suspect we will no know the effect until after Super Tuesday.

Edited 4:42 PM 1/30:
As expected Rudy Giuliani withdrew from the Republican Presidential race firmly endorsing John McCain for the position.

Queen Hillary moves to save Florida Dems

Wal-Mart .. the store that cares? Umm.. No.

According to CNNmoney.com Wal-Mart announced that it will chop prices up to 30% to "keep its cash-strapped consumers excited about shopping". Wal-Mart's chief merchandising officer said, "We all know economic times are tough so our plan is to help with added savings throughout the year, focusing especially on what people want, when they need it,". Isn't that considerate of them?

What I found intriguing was that this benevolence is only good for this week, a coincidence that it is the week leading up to the Super Bowl. If the company is truly concerned about the plight of cash strapped consumers, why only a week worth of cost cutting? And why are they particularly focusing on items that are traditionally bought to go with the "big" game?

I don't think I am the only one that recognizes that this is nothing more than the ole "traffic generation" ploy to help with their own retail sales numbers, and has nothing to do with concern for us poor cash strapped consumers.

According to Melissa O'Brien the Wal-Mart spokeswoman, this month's week long (now how you have a a month a week long... ) additional price cuts are "the first of more to come". If you are a worker for Wal-Mart you just have to be asking if the up to 30% price reductions will have to come out of some of your compensation, creating more pressure on the cash strapped consumer.

Bush's Last Stand

Is the Democratic Party ready for a "Black" nominee?

I was interested to see what some of the political buzz was going to be after Barack Obama swept to his dominant win in the Democrat party South Carolina primary yesterday. So I spent most of the day surfing the web, visiting various political forums, reviewing the "talking heads" of the news organizations, to see what the lay of the land was in the Democratic Party.

On Sunday Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of JFK, wrote in an Opinion piece in the NY Times titled "A President Like My Father", that she was endorsing Obama. As well on Sunday the Associated Press reported that on Monday, Ted Kennedy will be also endorsing Obama. While not earth shattering, these endorsements still carry weight and importance within the Democratic party, both in fund raising and organizational implications.

But the real story isn't in the endorsements Obama is receiving, it is in the discussions that his win in SC has evoked. A cursory walk through the political forums, would lead you to believe that his win was a fluke of demographics rather than the broad win that it actually was. Even Bill Clinton compared Obama's win with that of Jessie Jackson in 1984 and 1988, to some implying that it was strictly a matter of getting the African-American vote, while not bothering to mention his own wins in SC during his presidential races in 1992 and 1996. A phrasing that may further add to African-American displeasure with Clinton campaign tactics. In a party that has prided itself on the vast support of minorities, both views of Obama's win seems disingenuous.

Which leads me back to my original question. At no time in the history of the Democratic party has there been a truly viable national African-American candidate for president. Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton were never true viable candidates, and they would probably admit as much if they took a serious look at their candidacies. After wins in predominantly white Iowa, and a dominant win across most of the significant segments of demographics in South Carolina, anyone would be hard pressed to say that Obama's candidacy is not viable. Will the Democratic hierarchy be able to put aside it's paternal perspective of it's minority voting base, and allow that base to speak for itself through the auspices of the party nominee? A lot of these questions will be dependent on how the Clinton campaign continues to be waged. It is well known that a majority of the Democratic leadership has been behind Hillary Clinton for some time, and a majority of the party organization is at her disposal.

Should Barack Obama be able to win sufficient delegates to win the nomination of the party come August in Denver, will the leadership be prepared to stop being the shepard of the "oppressed" masses, and be able to allow it to be led by the "children" of the party.

Obama Dominates Clinton and Edwards in SC

Tonight in South Carolina, a state that Hillary Clinton led by double digits in the polls not two months ago, Barack Obama pulled out a sweeping, and dominating win in the Democratic primary. Obama did not win by a slim margin in a state that is considered to represent the Democratic party base with it's large African-American population, but it was a dominant 55% to 27% win over Clinton, across a broad spectrum of voter segments, the most dominant primary win by either candidate to date. John Edwards came in a disappointing third with only 18% of the vote from his home state.

Obama's win was not just an African-American voter supplied win, though according to CNN exit polls he did take around 80% of the African-American vote. But this was a win driven across the voting segment spectrum. Obama took 54% of both Male and Female votes. He took the majority of the votes across every age segment except 65 and over. He took the majority of votes regardless of what education level the voters were. He took the majority of votes regardless of what income range the voters were from. He had over 50% of the vote from people regardless of whether their most important issue was Iraq, Economy, or Health Care. And what I found most interesting was that he had nearly 50%, or more than 50%, of voters in the primary regardless of whether they identified themselves as Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative.

This was not a win on the back of just one segment of the voting spectrum. This was a complete win across almost every major definable voting segment within the state. It was complete, and it was dominating.

South Carolina has been defined as a state that represents the "base" of the Democratic party. If that is the case, then the win in SC speaks volumes about what the Democratic base is looking for. In a state that has voted Republican in the last 7 presidential elections Obama had more votes than both of the top two Republicans combined in their primary just last week.

We may have witnessed a defining moment in the 2008 Presidential election tonight.

Random musings number 3

Magnanimous Clinton:
Now that it looks like Obama could win the South Carolina primary, Sen Hillary Clinton, has reversed course and is campaigning for the Michigan and Florida Democratic primary delegates to be seated at the convention in Denver. The fact that she was the only candidate on the Michigan ballot, and apparently leads in the polls against Obama in Florida by nearly 2-1 has nothing to do with it.

When the DNC originally penalized the Michigan and Florida Democrats for moving their primaries prior to where they had been dictated by the national committee, by stripping ALL delegate representation, Clinton firmly stood in favor of the decision except for removing her name from the Michigan ballot as had all the other main competitors.

Now she wants it to seem, that she is fighting for the rights of the disenfranchised delegates from those two states, when in fact it is nothing more than positioning to obtain delegates she originally didn't think mattered to her.

If one thing has become more and more apparent in this Democratic primary, is that the Clinton machine will do or say anything to get what they want, and right now they want to reverse course on a decision by the DNC that only benefits her, and covering her reversal with a well displayed smoke screen of "caring" for those poor Michigan and Florida Democrats, that just a few months ago, she had no need of.


Republicans blew it with tax rebate:
The Republican party blew all hope of energizing their older conservative base when putting the "Economic stimulus package" together and left out the huge portion of Social Security beneficiaries in getting part of the rebate pie. If the republicans has paid any kind of attention to the exit polling in the South Carolina primary, they would have noticed that 67% of the voters in the Republican primary were 49+ years of age, and 35% are 60 years of age or older. What they have done is allow the Democrats in the Senate to make significant inroads when they amend the proposed package to include Social Security beneficiaries in the package whether they paid taxes or not. As my 71 year old mother, on Social Security, said "Why would I vote for them again now? Apparently they don't give a crap about me anymore".

What the heck position is Bill Clinton running for?:
Bill Clinton is campaigning like there is a position in the next administration that he would be able to fill if his wife Hillary wins the election. I think Mitt Romney summed up my view on it when he said in the Republican debate, "The thought of Bill Clinton in the White House with nothing to do is just scary". :)

Someone fibrillate the Republicans please:
Watching the Republican debate on MSNBC the other night was a challenge to either stay awake, or keep from going into a coma. I can't remember the last time I saw this many Republicans patting each other on the back, and generally making nice nice with each other to the point of nausea. If anyone is looking at the voter turn out from the previous caucuses and primaries, have they noticed that the Democratic turnout is nearly 2-1 over the Republicans? Someone better start the CPR on the Republican party base or they will end up sleeping through the election.

Can New England Patriots play the media any better?:
You have to wonder if the media can get in any more of a frenzy about Tom Brady's ankle sprain. By not allowing the media to get a glimpse of him in practice or in the locker room, the Patriots have played the media like a cheap violin. If anyone, and I mean anyone thinks Tom Brady will not be playing in the Super Bowl, they would believe that there are really Martians alive and hiding from our two rovers.

Don't tell Southern Californians and Iraqis that there isn't something up with the global weather:
Snow in Southern California, and snow in Baghdad? Don't try and tell these folks there isn't something strange going on with global weather :)

After 2 years New Orleans Fire Houses still unrepaired

I came across an article on CNN today detailing the work of "The Leary Fighrefighters Foundation" to rebuild and repair fire houses in New Orleans. New Orleans had 22 of 33 fire houses damaged during Katrina and it's aftermath, and the city and state had yet to aggressively move to rebuild any of the destroyed and damaged fire stations.

Dennis Leary the star of "Rescue Me" stated the reason for his foundation's involvement in the restoration work, "I gave up on ever hoping that politicians in this country -- local, state or federal -- would step in to help these guys,"

While Frigidaire is partnering with the Leary foundation, as far as I could determine from researching a number of NO sites, the $9.1Million in FEMA funds for infrastructure had yet to be spent by the local government to repair any of the sites. According to Edward Blakely, the czar of New Orleans recovery effort "Under city law," he said, "there has to be enough money in city coffers to pay for a project before construction starts." Blakely added, "funding projects has become a shell game of sorts since Katrina." What astonishes me even more is that New Orleans still after 2 years hasn't figured a way to either correct their city laws to allow proceeding faster, or are unwilling to do so.

To me this is another in a long line of political boundaries precluding relief monies getting to where they need to get to as soon as possible, and is one of the most egregious public oversight.

If you are reading this and are as disgusted at the response of our government bureaucracy to step up to the plate and want to donate to the Leary Foundation to aid in this undertaking feel free to visit DONATE TO THE NEW ORLEANS RESTORATION PROJECT and help.

Views on Random World Stuff

Seems one of the largest petroleum exporters in the world can’t manage to get heating oil to remote villages. ( AP story) Apparently President Ahmadinejad of Iran would rather rant and rave at the West, than make sure that his own people have the required natural gas and heating oil to survive. A number of internal political reversals lately, have put even more pressure on the hard line politician. As referenced in the article as well, “… in local municipal elections a year ago, the president’s allies suffered a humiliating defeat after a majority of the seats were won by reformists and conservatives opposing Ahmadinejad.” After 64 deaths now attributed to lack of heat in one of the coldest winters in some time, maybe he should worry about taking care of his own before worrying about what the West is doing.

After watching the Democratic presidential primary debate yesterday I came across the following article by Frederik Pleitgen of CNN. ( CNN article) The article is an interview with the 25 year old niece of Benazir Bhutto who was killed while campaigning for political leadership in Pakistan. One of the particularly telling issues that she brought up was the detrimental effect of “dynastic” politics in Pakistan. After reading the article, I couldn’t help but think about some of our own current problems here with dynastic political leadership (Bush I, Bush II, B.Clinton, H.Clinton). Maybe we should take some of this young lady’s concerns about keeping political leadership in the family and not have any more of it ourselves.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson on Tuesday officially withdrew from the GOP primary race. (CNN article) While personally a likable and honorable politician, not to mention not a bad actor, his presidential hopes were pretty well doomed from the start. He never showed the fire or real desire to get his message (I’m still trying to figure out what it was) out in front of the electorate. In addition to being far too laid back in his campaign, he never really pushed the early caucus and primary campaigns and staked his campaign on the first southern state in South Carolina. It backfired miserably, and in one quick look, it is back to the ole acting career. I’m hoping Giuliani is paying attention, for his strategy is even more bold in waiting for Florida to keep his campaign going, which I doubt will have any more success than Thompson had.

After a precipitous fall on Friday and all the world markets taking nearly 5% falls or greater on Monday while the U.S. markets were on holiday, the Federal Reserve board stepped in before the markets opened this morning and cut two key interest rates by ¾ of a percentage point. (CNNMoney.com) This turns out to be the largest cut in the funds rate at one time in 24 years. The reasoning from the FED for this drastic cut was “Broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.” Well…. DUH. I mean for heavens sake what numbers have they been watching that this wasn’t in evidence? While the market struggled back from it’s gap down opening of around 450 points on the DOW to settle at down 128.11, the real question is will it hold over the rest of the week, or will the FED be forced to introduce further cuts at their January 20th meeting.

Apparently the Democrats primary debate on Monday broke cable network ratings records. (CNN political ticker) While it was highly entertaining, it wasn’t much in the way of informative. But it did provide better body blows than ECW wrestling.

HEADLINE: FALSE STATEMENTS PRECEEDED WAR IN IRAQ (AP Story) This goes into the Well …. DUH category as well. If this news surprises anyone, all I have to say is where have you been hiding?

Finally a candidate that we can take at their word. (AP article) Ed Hamilton, 77, is challenging incumbent Mindy Williams for the GOP nomination for Kerr Country treasurer, and promises “I don’t plan to do the job, I won’t accept a paycheck”. Campaigning to ask for a referendum on a constitutional amendment that would allow counties to eliminate the treasurer positions. Combating arguments from the incumbent that the position provides accountability on the county’s spending, Hamilton says “check and balance” is “a euphemism for duplication of effort.” What I can’t figure out is why a Democrat isn’t running for such an important post?

And finally, for those wondering how Eclectic Views from the Fringe is doing financially, you will be glad to know that I have exceeded my expectations and have garnered a whopping $0.65 so far in ad revenue. If I keep this up, I will be able to be in the same tax bracket as Al Gore has achieved in going from a net worth of $1Million to $100Million in the short time he has been blogging about Global Warming in no time. Obviously his ads are much cooler than mine :)

The Dems had a brawl.. er debate last night

An interesting thing happened last night. The Democrats held a debate and a street fight broke out.

From the very beginning of the debate starting with the second question of the night posed by Suzanne Maleaux who asked Obama, “She (Hillary Clinton) says that the new programs that she proposes she essentially can pay for. She says that you have failed in that regard in the tune of some $50 billion worth of new programs that you cannot account for. How do you respond to that charge?” You could tell it was going to be one of those kinds of nights. Not only did the two front running candidates punch and counter punch, but it seemed to me that CNN moderators were more than happy to egg the encounters on to the point of nearly ignoring Edwards entirely, who’s first substantive interaction was “What I want to say first is, are there three people in this debate, not two?”

While there will be arguments that Obama started the confrontational jabbing in the debate, in all fairness, it was pretty well a set up with the way the question was posed, and directed. However, it appeared obvious to me during the more confrontational episodes, that it was clearly Hillary Clinton on the attack against Obama, in what appeared not so much an effort get clarification of positions, but keep Obama on the defense, answering accusations rather than being able to put any message out.

The one person that probably benefited the most was Edwards. While not getting much chance to really talk during the debate, he was able in what few times he was able to, show much more passion, and poise than he had in previous debates. This was probably without a doubt the best debate of the series so far for Edwards. Unfortunately, the simple fact that the CNN moderators continually let Clinton and Obama claim the floor for their personal attacks and counter attacks, basically relegated Edwards to the spare wheel in the debate.

My assessment is that Obama did what he had to do to fend off the constant accusations, and misrepresentation of his positions, and statements both leading up to the debate since Iowa, and during the debate. Edwards when opportunity presented itself, spoke eloquently and precisely, and showed a passion in his delivery that had been lacking. Clinton on the other hand continued the sniping and character bashing attacks that have been part and parcel of her campaign ever since Iowa. And the audience, and probably a good portion watching at home were becoming both tired of it, and resentful of the continuation of it. I seriously think Clinton positioned herself to lose SC in the upcoming primary when she declared “… I was fighting against those ideas (Reagan) when you were practicing law and representing your contributor, Rasco, in his slum landlord business in inner city Chicago.” The loud chorus of boos that followed that statement obviously did not sit well with the predominantly African-American audience, and to me at least showed that there is some serious Rove like tendencies in campaigning from the Clinton camp.

If Clinton loses the SC primary come Saturday, I think the negativity that she continues to display in the personal confrontations with Obama, will be the ultimate reason. If Edwards shows well at even a 2nd place finish in SC, I think his stock rising from this debate will be the reason people will be taking a second look at him. I don’t think Obama either gained ground or lost ground based on his own performance in the debate, and is still positioned well to take the primary and tighten the race with Clinton going into the big Super Tsunami Tuesday on February 5th.

One last personal note on the CNN moderators and their questioning. What in the hell were they thinking when posing a question to Obama from Joe Johns, “The Nobel Prize-winning African-American author, Toni Morrison, famously observed about Bill Clinton. “This is our first black president, blacker than any actual black person who could ever be elected in our children’s lifetime.” Do you think Bill Clinton was our first black president?” That has got to be the dumbest question I’ve ever heard asked by a moderator in these debates. First, Obama is campaigning against Hillary Clinton, and some would say Bill Clinton as well. Secondly, it is an absolutely asinine set up that to a large degree is a lose/lose proposition for Obama regardless of what his answer is.

In the over all grading of the moderation of the debate I firmly give CNN a big fat unequivocal “F”.

Obama fighting two front battle against Clintons

Over the last couple of Democratic primary events, the NH primary and the Nevada caucus, it has become increasingly apparent that former president Bill Clinton is taking a far more direct role in the campaign of his wife Hillary against Barack Obama. Frequently, Hillary plays the "nice" (do we remember the near to tears in NH) part of campaign duo, while Bill plays the "nasty" (Obama's campaign of hope is a "fairy tale") campaign member. Obviously Bill's intention from June not to do significant campaigning for Hillary (Washingtonpost.com interview), where he said "I don't expect to do a lot of this this year and I don't think it's helpful. I want people to get to know Hillary.", has been abandoned for a much more aggressive role.

I can not recall any previous election where a Former President exercised so much influence in a party's nomination race. But then there has never been a Former President who was the husband of a running candidate. The question for Obama is this: Does he have to take on in public debate not only Hillary, but a former president to defeat her for the Democratic nomination? The answer at this point appears to be an unequivocal YES.

The thing that concerns me is that the Democrats seem to be buying the Hillary (you like me you really really like me) shtick while viewing Bill's negative assaults and tantrums in support of his wife (NY Times Article) as just Bill being Bill. When in fact they are obviously a concerted effort that is part and parcel to the entire Hillary Clinton campaign plan.

Previous Former Presidents have for the most part stayed out of the party process to determine a nominee, and saving their campaign capital for the general election in support of their parties chosen candidate. This time, Bill appears to be the house "junk yard dog" set loose at every opportunity to attack any of the other Democrat candidates when ever they appear to be threatening Hillary's position as Democratic standard bearer.

While I doubt there will be any reigning in of Bill during the remainder of the campaign (after all he loves the limelight so), one has to wonder if Obama can overcome such an obvious double barrelled shotgun campaign.

Should Barack Obama survive and win the Democratic nomination in Denver, he will have overcome a campaign handicap that no Democrat or Republican has ever had to face before in winning their party's nomination. Not only will he have beaten a politically shrewed and experienced campaigner in Hillary Clinton, but also have beaten a heavily active former President who still carries significant control over the Democrat party machine, in the same campaign.

If Obama wins the nomination, the Republicans will be hard pressed to test his campaigning metal any more than it will be tested during the race for the nomination.

Another primary, another dash of GOP confusion

The South Carolina primary solved nothing as far as the GOP race is concerned except for the "Custer's last stand" expected demise of Fred Thompson's "last stand" in South Carolina. McCain took the primary with 33% of the vote, Huckabee was second with 30%, Thompson a distant third with 16%, and Romney who pretty much gave up on SC fourth with 15%. Fred Thompson had stated all along that his strategy was to bypass the earlier caucuses and primaries and focus on winning SC. Obviously a bad tactic after last nights results. Not only did he not come close to winning, but during the campaign he has failed miserably at defining what his campaign stands for. By not participating in the earlier GOP primary events, he has not honed his message (what ever that may be) with the electorate to the extent McCain, Huckabee, and Romney have.

By fairly well conceding SC to McCain and Huckabee, Romney looks to take his high spending campaign to Florida. By doing so, he has left the door open even wider for McCain and Huckabee in my opinion.

As I look to Florida, I expect the same results for Giuliani as Thompson had in SC. Too late to the game, and an undefined message that separates him from the top three. About the only thing to come out of Florida is a more compressed trio of candidates with no clear leader going into Super Tuesday on February 5th.

While the GOP hopes that Super Tuesday will provide them with a clear leader, I am far from convinced. The likely hood of the GOP going to their convention without a clear cut nominee looks to provide immense entertainment to the political junkies like me, but do little to shore up the lagging Republican enthusiasm for the race so far.

The political landscape viewed from the fringe

After many months of proclaiming that the economy is "strong", suddenly Congress, the President, and the Fed Chief are all scrambling to pull together a "stimulus" package of tax rebates to fend off the up coming (if not already here) economic recession. As is typical with our elected officials they are about a year behind the times in planning. Any tax rebates will not have an impact on anyone until 2009, and by that time the housing debacle will be well over 2 and 1/2 years old, and any recession will be a year old. If this wasn't an election year, I imagine we would still be getting the "economy is strong" blather from Washington.

Does the idea of "President Huckabee" scare anyone else but me? In his South Carolina campaigning he has again re-iterated his support for constitutional amendments banning abortion and same-sex marriages. It is not his support for those constitutional amendments that scare me as much as his purported reasoning for them saying that allowing same-sex marriages will lead to -- "I think the radical view is to say that we’re going to change the definition of marriage so that it can mean two men, two women, a man and three women, a man and a child, a man and animal." www.beliefnet.com interview The fact that we have a serious presidential contender so far embedded with the evangelical right that the separation of church and state looks to be in serious jeopardy should he win scares me.

After several days of bickering over the issue of race in the spats between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the founder of BET Bob Johnson, who made veiled comments about Obama's teenage drug use, has finally come out and apologized (CNN article). Of course before the apology Clinton fully supported Johnson's remarks but now when asked if his comments were out of line says "Yes, they were. And he has said that." Amazing how a couple of days can cause 180 degree turn around in a politician's interpretation of what is said when sitting right next to someone. When asked immediately after his original comments Clinton saw nothing wrong with them, now he was "out of line".

An interesting division within the African-American voting "block" has started to unfold, particularly as it relates to the support of the Democratic presidential candidates. Clinton has pretty much garnered the support of the "traditional" leadership, while Obama seems to be garnering much broader support from the next generation of African-American voters. One of the startling things that came out of the Michigan Democratic beauty contest masquerading as a primary was that 68% of the African-American identified voters opted for "Uncommitted" rather than Clinton, a statistic that could spell trouble for Clinton as the race moves closer to Super Tuesday on February 5th.

So let us have an open convention in both parties this year. An unlikely scenario just a month ago when the political experts were expounding the clear winners of the inevitable nominations of Clinton and Romney. Now after a few caucuses and primaries the political landscape suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance that the Republican convention could be held with no one having enough delegates to achieve the nomination on the first ballot, and the Democrats look to be going into Denver with a possible split between the two front runners putting the balance of power in Edward's hands. On the Republican side, with separate victors in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan, and possibly yet different winners in South Carolina and Florida, the Republicans could end up so split delegate wise that the possibility of a "compromise" candidate coming out of the convention is a real possibility.

The one thing that is certain about this election, is that there is nothing certain about it. Each week brings out new and interesting items for the political junkie, and the race to the end will, if nothing else, prove better entertainment than the thousands of "reality" shows on the networks. There is no way you can script what is happening this year, and it should be a wild and entertaining show. Time to pop another bag of popcorn in the microwave and get comfy in the recliner to watch the show.

Arrogant DNC disenfranchises Michigan and Florida Democrats

If I was a Democrat in Michigan or Florida at this point, I think I would be looking at the general election in November a bit differently than my fellow Democrats in the rest of the country.

Last night Michigan held a Democratic presidential primary, and Hillary Clinton defeated “Uncommitted” by just under 100,000 votes, and received “zero” delegates from Michigan. You read that right. Michigan will be sending zero accredited delegates voted on by the registered Democrats in Michigan to the Democratic Convention in Denver this year. These phantom delegates from Michigan are soon to be joined by the non-delegates from Florida on the 29th of January.

You have read the above correct. Democrats from Michigan and Florida will have zip, nada, none, zero input into the selection of the Democratic nominee for president of the United States. In probably one of the most arrogant acts of disenfranchising it’s own party voters, the Democratic National Committee has seen fit to strip both Michigan and Florida of delegate representation for having the audacity of the state legislatures of those states moving their primaries to dates before the big shindig on February 5th. The Republican National Committee has reduced the number of delegates from each state by half, but did not take the completely arrogant step of totally disenfranchising two entire state party faithful.

So the Democrats in Michigan and Florida are being punished because those particular State legislatures (you know the properly elected officials of the people), dared move their primaries (both Republican and Democrat) to a date before February 5th. In effect the Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries are nothing more than glorified beauty pageants being paid for by state government funds (after all who do you think pays for primary elections?). If I was a Democrat, in either Michigan or Florida, I might be thinking of being a little spiteful come general election time in November and just stay home, or even worse, vote for some wacky Independent candidate.

But hey, the Democrats have the General election sowed up and won’t need the electoral votes from Michigan and Florida to put their candidate over the top and into the White House.

But should the November general election turn out to be close, and disenfranchised Democrats from Michigan and Florida from the primaries, not get out and vote, and the Republicans pull out those states, we may very likely be looking back at this singularly arrogant step by the DNC as the reason for the loss.

As I like to say.. American Democracy in action is always entertaining.. you can't possibly make this stuff up.

And if any of the non-delegates need a place to stay in Denver come convention time, give me a shout I think I have a spare room available.

Is it time for a new political party?

Sitting here thinking about the Michigan Primary about to happen today, and a thought occurred to me that what the country needs is an end to the bipartisan chasm that has been created in the country by both the Republican and Democratic parties. Both parties over the last 50 years have migrated so much farther and farther to the extremes of the left and right, that the moderate, middle of the spectrum voter really has no political party that they can identify with.

What we need is a Moderate Party. A party that identifies and takes as it's own the problems of the middle. A party that isn't chained to the extreme evangelical right, or the liberal social program bound left. A party that worries about the majority of the country, the middle class, the ones getting up at 5:00 AM to go to work in the mill, the waitress, the department store worker, the small business owner.

It is time we had a party that was more worried about the majority of americans, than they are about the far extremes in political ideology. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can any longer carry the banner for the middle. Both are so inextricably tied to their politicaly extreme segments, that they no longer can see the middle of the political spectrum.

We need a new political revolution, that carries the banner of the moderate majority of America. It is time we abandoned the extreme polar bickering that has been the mantra of the Democrats and Republicans, and replace it with a moderate, cooperative middle that can actually remember what it is to work 10 hour days, 6 days a week, to support their family, provide child care, to barely save for retirement, the basic backbone population that the country has built its economic, and moral base upon.

It is time we replaced the failing Democratic and Republican parities with something that resembles what America is, and that has the same aspirations, and goals.

It is time for a change alright, but a change that neither current party is able to achieve.

A good weekend of Pro Football

The weekend provided some prime pro football viewing for just about everyone. While I'm not an avid pro football fan, I have to admit to a facination with New England's run on a totally perfect season, and the rejuvination of Farve this year.

New England:
The Patriots just looked machine like in thier win. Jacksonville forced the Pats to stay short, and Brady simply took what was there and marched. Overall the Pats put together another strong and complete game to go to 17-0.

Green Bay:
Is it just me or is Farve having the best season of his career this year? He looked like a kid out there in the snow playing school ground football, and having a blast in the snow. It seemed that the harder it snowed the better Green Bay played, and pretty much ran away with the game in the second half. It was nice to see grown men having fun playing a game for a change.

San Diego:
Even without their top running back and their starting quarterback, they were able to knock off the Colts. The two teams seariously beat each other up during the game, and you have to think this does not bode well for SD going into New England next weekend. The Colts looked sluggish, and uninspired, and the Chargers took advantage of them both defensively and offensively.

NY Giants:
The Giants didn't look any sharper than the Cowboys until it counted in the second half, where the Cowbowys offensive line became a sieve. A lot of people were pointing the finger at Romo having another "big" game collapse, but the blame if anyone deserves it is the Cowboys offensive line. The Giants on the other hand took what the Cowboys gave them and squeeked out a win to keep at least one Manning in the playoff hunt.

My picks for this weekend? New England over San Diego and Green Bay over the Giants.

Random musings number 2

I've been focusing on the Political front a bit heavily lately, after all some of the stuff that goes on in this campaign you just can't make up. But, I've decided to make a regular ritual to get back to some of my more random, and non political musings, so here we go.

When the virtual merges with reality:
I was a bit taken aback when I came across a CNN feed for news from Second Life, the virtual world of alternate personal avatars. Apparently you can get the news that is news worthy on the goings on in your virtual life at SL I-Reports on CNN.com. What surprised me is the articles on the "Banking" crisis. Just what I need in a virtual world, more "real" money problems. The only thing I didn't see in the news articles to make it truly news worthy was some article on the virtual Britiny Spears.

CES and what I really want for xmas:
There have been a lot of new gizmo's reported on out of CES across the news and the blogs, but the one thing that struck me as a must have for my entertainment fantasy room was the 150" HDTV, now I just have to convince the wife that we need to knock down the living room wall to get it into the house.

Let's play it one more time:
Apparently a scoring error in the Dec 19th Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat game, where Shaquile O'Neal was erroneously tagged as fouling out, has caused the NBA to call for a redo of the last 51.9 seconds. So the Atlanta fans kind of get a twofer on March 8th when the two teams play again in Atlanta. Though I'm thinking there are probably a lot better 51.9 second periods of NBA basketball I would rather see.

Missing it by "" that much:
Apparently the large asteroid that was originally touted to have a 1 in 25 chance of hitting Mars, has now been calculated to miss the red planet by anywhere between 2480 and 16000 miles. Darn is all I can say. While the whole astrophysics population was busily preparing their "doomsday" articles to tell us how much danger we are in (remember the hoopla after Shoemaker-Levy-9 struck Jupiter), we seem to have gone into a "oh well" mode since it is just going to be a near miss. I guess we have to wait for one to strike the moon full force before we really start to get our act together on something that has global implications.

Blogging and money making:
Trying to explain to the wife why I'm blogging when I've only made a grand total of $0.38 since starting is losing it's luster. Apparently, she thinks getting a "real" job would be more practical.

Someone woke Fred Thompson up:
Ok I can't bypass a little political assessment. Apparently someone woke Fred Thompson up and told him there was a Republican nomination race going on. After lounging pretty much on the sidelines during the Iowa and NH caucus and primaries, Fred actually started questioning the other candidates positions during the debates in South Carolina. As for the effect of this sudden awakening, I'm thinking he should probably just go back to snoozing.

Obviously new film material is hard to come by:
It is bad enough that we are subjected to trilogies, third time remakes of 1940's movies, and re-hashes of old Charlton Heston movies, but have we sunk so low in the movie business that the best we can come up with is just bringing back old Stallone "Rambo" movies in re-release? I mean what is next? Re-releases of Halloween 1-34? And the movie moguls can't understand why their product attendance has been dropping over the years.

Ok that is it for this week. Hopefully, you enjoyed my little travels around the fringe.

What does the Kerry endorsement of Obama mean?

Well for one thing, Mr Edwards chances to achieve the Democratic nomination just took a big slap. I mean if you can't even get endorsed by your former running mate, who can you get endorsed by?

The main thing I think this endorsement does is offset a bit of the Clinton mystique in the Democratic party against Barack Obama. Kerry is still very popular within the democratic party, and can bring significant resources to the Obama campaign. Whether that happens or not is still to be seen, although it is rumored that Kerry's 3 million e-mail list is about to get a message from Obama.

For all intents and purposes, what the endorsement does is absolutely narrow the Democratic primary race down to Clinton and Obama, with Edwards relegated to running for VP again. If Edwards can't pull out a victory in South Carolina or Florida (if he lasts that long), I would expect him to finally hang up the guns, and move to the sidelines.

What did New Hampshire tell us?

Well it took all of 14 minutes for CNN to project John McCain the Republican primary winner in New Hampshire. It took most of the remainder of the night to finally declare Hillary Rodham Clinton the winner over Barack Obama, while CNN easily projected John Edwards to finish third in the Democratic primary within about five minutes.

A number of interesting things played out over the course of the evening as the results of the primary unfolded. The Republicans still have a very crowded field with many of the lower tier candidates still having their main focus on the later primaries in South Carolina and Florida. While McCain may have won the primary in New Hampshire to establish “Mac is back”, Romney finished second again, as in Iowa, with Huckabee falling back to the second tier candidates after his win in Iowa. Giuliani and Thompson have yet to really put on an effective campaign in either of the first two primaries.

A major surprise to some and what should be disconcerting to the Republicans at this point, is the significant increase in the number of voters in the Democratic primary compared to previous years, while the number of Republican voters actually decreased. While Kerry took New Hampshire by 1.4% over Bush in 2004, it is significant to note that the second place finisher in the Democratic primary will have more votes than the winner of the Republican primary.

On the Democratic side it appears to me that unless Edwards pulls out a clear win in either South Carolina or Florida, he may be only running a campaign for vice president, leaving the real race to Clinton and Obama.

So is LSU really #1?

Well the BCS bowl season is over and LSU pretty handily beat OSU in the "BCS Championship" game played in the Sugar bowl on Monday 38 to 24. In the final AP poll, LSU was 1st with 60 first place votes with Georgia, USC, Missouri, OSU, WVU, and Kansas rounding out the top 7 spots, so there will be no "split" championship this year.

However, what we ended up with was 6 teams with 2 losses, and a one loss team in the top 7 spots and only two of those teams had played another team in the group. So how can anyone rightfully say that LSU is the "real" #1?

According to some reports the BCS will evaluate a plus one format when they meet in April ( ESPN report ). But either of the currently discussed methods of plus one plans would have left out USC and Georga from the proposed seeded 4 team playoffs.

The biggest sticking point in all of this is as usual the Rose Bowl folks. Unless somehow they are convinced to move to support some type of playoff format, any plan is probably still born. The Rose bowl folks are determined to keep what they consider the preeminent position and ties with the Pac-10 and Big 10 conferences, and anything that they view as undermining that position will just not fly. What they fail to realize is that to the majority of college football fans, the Rose Bowl isn't the "Grandaddy" of the bowls anymore, and hasn't been for some time.

Opponents to a "real" playoff system in Div-I typically use the "too many games" argument to argue against additional games in the season. I prefer to look at "too long between games" for teams like OSU who last played on NOVEMBER 17th, as a perfect reason to go to a playoff format. Teams sitting around for nearly 2 months between their final regular season game and a "championship" game is simply foolish. The rhythm, the routine, the normalcy that regular game playing gives a team is totally lost with that kind of a break in routine.

Congratulations to LSU, but I'm pretty sure fans and players from Kansas, USC, and Georga have a just as equal and legitimate reason to say "We're #1".

Will Hillary's super delegates start to defect if Obama wins NH?

With one day to go before the NH primary, and Barack Obama seeming to be pulling away a bit from Clinton in the NH polls, one question occurred to me to ask.

A lot of the delegate lead that Clinton now holds over Obama in the Democratic primary race is based on the super delegate commitments that she holds. So let us speculate that Obama pulls out a NH primary win for a moment. Do the Democratic big wigs (committee chairmen, state party chairmen, etc), start to re-evaluate their commitments to Clinton?

I would not be surprised at all to start to see a bit of erosion in the super delegate commitments to Clinton, should Obama pull out a significant win in NH.

But time will tell. Mean while, I'm getting the popcorn out to watch the show.

Why I think Obama will win the Democratic Nomination

Let me start off by saying, I'm not a Democrat, so I have a bit of a luxury in looking at the Democratic presidential nomination race with a little bit of objectivity. And my view from the fringe at this point and my gut tells me that Obama is likely to end up the Democratic presidential nominee. And I'll even tell you why I think that.

In the debates on January 5th in Manchester, Hillary Clinton while on the attack against Obama made the following statement attacking his ability to actually make change happen, "As beautifully presented, as passionately presented as they are, words are not action," Clinton said. This one small view into the differences between the two main Democratic candidates is what my gut tells me will make Obama the winner.

There is something, and you can't put your finger on it, that comes across and grabs you when Barack Obama speaks. And the major problem for Hillary Clinton is that she doesn't recognize that words, presented with passion, and commitment can indeed lead to action. Now I'm not going to sit here and say that I believe every thing that Barack Obama is promising in his speeches, but I can't deny that I "hope" that he means what he says.

Over the last forty some odd years there have not been any Democratic candidates that could remind me of the connections that JFK, and RFK had with the youth of America. What I sense, and feel is starting to happen, is that a growing number of young people disenchanted with the status quo of the nearly last half century of politics, feel that in Obama is a real chance to try a different path.

For us baby boomers, who can remember back to the JFK and RFK era, at least to me, there is the same ability to appeal to the "better nature" of Americans, and move that to the front of the platform. When Obama refuses to make folks pay a penalty for not buying health care when they can't afford it, and Clinton bangs him for it, the attack only strengthens his position. What Hillary has forgotten is, people don't buy health insurance now because they can't afford it. To argue that you have to penalize people already in financial straights with a monetary penalty for not buying something you are dictating they have to buy, when they couldn't afford it in the first place, shows a serious disconnect with common people.

If Barack Obama pulls out a New Hampshire primary win, my prediction is that you will start to see some serious closing of ranks behind him. When I talk about "closing of ranks" I'm not talking about the Democratic political big wigs (who mostly already threw their support to Clinton), I'm talking about the common every day working Democrat and Independent closing behind him.

And in the end the reason will be because despite what Hillary Rodham Clinton believes, beautifully presented and passionately delivered words CAN move people to incredible actions and change. Just ask the millions of 1960s youth who were moved to action by the beautifully presented and passionately delivered words of a couple of earlier Democrats.

Ramblings from the Fringe

Well it took all of what 3 days into the new year for the "Britney" news to push aside an upcoming presidential election into the background? And you have to ask yourself.. in a mentally critical situation, would one of the people you confide in, expecting to keep your conversations confidential be Dr Phil? I don't think he got out of the revolving doors before he started spilling the beans.

Speaking of politics, seems Hillary has decided to show a bit of her true personality in New Hampshire after coming in third in Iowa. Seems the "working on likability" aspect she was so strong on in Iowa is out the window, with pointed attacks on Obama, Edwards, and just about anyone else. Guess you can only take the high ground when you are perceived to be in front :)

On the Economic front, it appears president Bush is trying to figure out a "stimulus" package to be delivered to the masses by the state of the union message towards the end of the month. Here is a question, if the economy is strong, as the president keeps saying, why do we need a stimulus package?

I looked in the mail and didn't receive my invitation to the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas. Guess I'm not what they consider an important enough "technology blogger" :) I can't fathom why they aren't opening the show to the public. Guess we will have to wait and get the scoop from the "real" experts.

I've had to slow down the number of posts I make to the blog by the way. Apparently if you post too frequently (which appears to be around 3 or more a day), the fine folks at Google spam blog monitoring flags you as a spam blogger, and locks your editing ability until a "real" person looks at the blog to verify it as non spam.

Here is a needed invention idea. When you have four dogs, and 2 weeks of snow covering the ground, you need a machine or do hicky that will locate and clean up the undesired remnants of having four dogs doing what they do do.

And the 2008 Presidential Horse Race is off and running

Well the Iowa caucuses are done finally, after spending over $40 million dollars on the state between all the candidates. And the clear cut winners according to CNN election center was Obama for the Democrats and Huckabee for the Republicans.

What the experts will be telling us now is that on the Democratic side it is a 2 horse race between Obama and Clinton, they seem to forget that Clinton finished 3rd behind Edwards. And on the Republican side they will be announcing that the Huckabee win was a fluke and the real test for the Republicans is the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

I'm always amazed at how the large news organizations try to "finalize" the entire election after the first primary :).

This presidential election should be more entertaining than the last two ever hoped to be even with all the "chad" counting. Time to get out the popcorn and find a nice comfy chair to relax in and watch the show.

Why are there NO Garth Brooks songs on ITunes?

I went to ITunes and was looking to download a couple of particular songs since the CD with them went missing into the same place as the single socks from the dryer apparently, and I was astounded that there are NO Garth Brooks songs on ITunes. Sorry just a little rant since I get most of my single music for my play lists from there.

So you want to develop your own MMOG?

As a avid online gamer, having played nearly every major on-line release since Everquest 1, I was to say the least intrigued when I came across Multiverse .

Produced by former Netscape developers, and able to be licensed by novice and production game developers alike, there could be an explosion of home-made MMOGs soon to hit the internet.

There seems to be still a number of issues which they haven't posted answers about, but overall, if you got the hankering to make a game, or even a world for that matter, it seems you may have your hidden desire realized.

I haven't signed up for downloading the development kit yet, but may in the near future (writing a fantasy book could use a little visual game world to play in :) )

I'll definately keep an eye on this to see where it goes.

So what have the two BCS bowls so far told us?

That USC is a very good team and just as deserving as LSU or OSU to be in the Championship game. That Georga is probably playing the best football in the country at the end of the season and is just as equally deserving to be in the Championship game. However, it did point out that all undefeated records (Hawaii) are not created equal.

Can we just institute a championship playoff for the top tier NCAA division like all the others and get this silly BCS experiment over with?

The price of Democracy

I took time out from watching all the college football games today and while reading some news came across an article ( CNN article ) saying that Iowa's voters have been bombarded with nearly $40 million dollars worth of advertising leading up to the caucus. You have got to be kidding me? $40 million dollars (with an M) for one state?

I don't care if you are Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Martian Extremest... If it takes $40 million dollars to get your message out to one state, you need to get a better message.

The problem with today's politicians is that they are so concerned about putting together a "targeted" message to so many small segregated constituencies, that they couldn't put together a broad "Let's do what is right for the majority" message if their lives depended on it.

There are times during elections that I miss the original Pat Paulsen candidacy.. at least he was funny.