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Friday, February 1, 2008

The Dems debate, and we finally hear substance

Tonight the Democrats held their last presidential primary debate prior to the Super Tuesday sweepstakes. For the first time, we got serious substantial discussion on the specifics of each of Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's plans for Health Care, Immigration, and Iraq. Whether you agree or disagree with them individually or together in their position on the issues, you at least got to hear them explain what it was they mean when they talk about them.

Overall, I thought the debate finally highlighted the substantive differences between these two candidates, rather than focusing on their gender, race, or spouses. And I as an Independent, welcomed the chance to view the two in that light.

I thought Hillary Clinton was at her strongest during the segment dealing with Health Care. It is obvious that she is passionate about Universal Healthcare, and her plan is detailed and presented in detail. Barack Obama, I thought suffered slightly arguing in an area that is obviously Clinton's strongest suit. Though he still was able to articulate not only what his plan meant, which is not too dissimilar to Clinton's but distinguish where he differed in the tactical implementation of the two plans. Where Clinton would mandate individual coverage, Obama would not mandate it. Does that mean that one plan is "Universal", and the other isn't? I think to a degree it is a matter of semantics.

When they talked about immigration, I thought both struggled on how to deal with it, and what impacts it has on the country's economy. This was obviously not the strongest position for Clinton, and something that was just as weak a subject for Obama. The issue of immigration reform, or enforcement is a complicated matter, and has ramifications across the economic and political landscape. And they both seemed hard pressed to define a position that clearly delineated themselves from each other.

When the discussion turned to Iraq, I felt that this was Obama's strongest area. While Clinton has consistently denounced the invasion of Iraq, she did vote for the joint resolution to provide Bush with the authority to go to war. Obama on the other hand played his strength by being one of the few that from the beginning declared that a war with Iraq was a strategic mistake, and one that should have never been undertaken. His ability to stand on his position against the war from the beginning continues to place Clinton in the position to defend her vote, a situation that she struggles with.

From a who won and who lost perspective, I thought that each got the opportunity, and quite clearly outlined their positions, and detailed their specific plans for implementation. I would say Clinton was the stronger on the Healthcare issues, they both were weak, but even on Immigration, and Obama was the stronger on the issue of Iraq.

Overall I would assess it a tie with both getting "A" grades for presenting and staying on subject of issues and specifics. The question is what does this do going into Super Tuesday? Frankly, I don't think anyone who had already made up their minds as to which one of the candidates they would vote for will change their minds based off of the debate. Both candidates made overt and calculated attempts to persuade John Edwards’s supporters to move to their camps, I don't think anyone knows, failing Edwards specifically endorsing one or the other, which way those voters will go. I don't think there were any telling "knock out" blows, but simply a clarification of what many of us already knew about each candidate.

The voting on Super Tuesday will tell us a lot about what position these two will be in as they drive to the convention, but it will be far from settled as to who will win the nomination, even after Tuesday. There is a long way to go yet, and the race continues to narrow between these two the longer it goes.

The two main areas of the exit polls on Tuesday I will particularly be examining is, where did the former Edwards voters go, and where in the country each candidate has staked out particular strength.

On to Tuesday.. it should be an interesting evening, and a political junkies dream :)

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